Meat prices

This from the Cleveland Plain Dealer...I haven't kept tabs on L'ville prices (still working on meat I stocked up on during the sales in March)...Anyone notice a "spike" around here yet ?

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index ... s_ris.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Steak and pork chop prices are starting to soar more than a month ahead of the summer grilling season, driven up by fierce competition for a smaller supply of beef and pork.

Ranchers and hog farmers who thinned their herds in response to lower demand over the past year and a half are taking fewer animals to market, driving up the cost of popular cuts.

haven't noticed any big changes, but haven't seen the super low sales happening either... we buy most of our meat at Burgers and no changes there, but I do keep an eye on things at Kroger for some things they don't normally have available... hopefully prices won't get too crazy, but I can grill veggies pretty well

After years of purchasing meat wholesale you tend to notice seasonal pricing trends.
Right now because it's after Easter, pork prices (loins, ribs, bacon) tend to be on the lower side because of the demand for hams for Easter.
Beef prices traditionally get a little higher this time of year anyway because Mother's Day is right around the corner with Memorial Day right behind it. Those are big beef eating holidays and the summer grilling season is starting up.
Beef producers took a huge hit last year when the economy went into the tank. I was buying PRIME graded meat at 40% less than the normal price. At that time the demand wasn't there and there was a glut of product on the market. Essentially that will mean higher beef prices overall for us in the near future. They haven't ramped up production even close to what it was before the recession hit. How long this will last is anybody's best guess. My suggestion; If you have a big freezer, start stocking up now for your July 4th cookout!

Meat prices set to skyrocket

A dwindling supply of corn has caused farmers to cut herd sizes. Meat prices are responding.


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/In ... =1,1747830

Here are some recent beef wholesale notes......It looks like ground beef is in for a steep increase if producers would rather grind chuck than make cuts

CHUCK SIZE TREND Next 2 weeks Next 4 weeks Expected Top Expected bottom COMMENTS
BEEF CHUCK ROLL NECK OFF CH 20#AVG ($0.08) ($0.09) 5/3/10 There are projected to be some declines in the chuck complex moving forward. Prices are expected to remain above last year levels. If prices fall too far, packers will grind the whole primal instead of fabricating and boxing the product..
BEEF SHLDR CLOD BNLS CH 114 24#AVG ($0.05) ($0.08) 5/3/10 Clods look to be taking a short term dip, with prices set to increase again towards the end of May.

RIB SIZE TREND Next 2 weeks Next 4 weeks Expected Top Expected bottom COMMENTS
BEEF RIBEYE LIPON CH 112A 13.5UP $0.18 $0.13 4/26/10 Choice ribs look to gain just a bit more in the next several weeks then turn slightly downward. The support for this from spring grilling, Memorial Day is the largest beef sales weekend of the year. Any price declines will be moderate, and prices are expected to remain above year ago levels.
BEEF RIBEYE LIPON SEL 112A 13.5UP $0.13 $0.20 6/14/10 Select ribs have a bit more ground that they can gain over choice before they hit their peak. Keep ahead on select ribs through May.

LOIN SIZE TREND Next 2 weeks Next 4 weeks Expected Top Expected bottom COMMENTS
BEEF STRIP LOIN 0X1 CH 180 12#AVG $0.46 $0.60 5/31/10 There is still some significant upside potential to choice strips before they hit their peak. Inform customers that the price can still go up in the short term, buy in some extra now.
Select 0X1 BNLS STRIP 11#AVG $0.10 $0.12 5/31/10 Select strips show a smaller upside than choice, we are running close to the top and prices should stay about this level until the end of May. It will be mid summer before both grades of strips show any significant price declines.
BEEF TOP SIRL BUTT CH 184 13#-UP $0.06 $0.14 4/26/10 Choice top butts are expected to get above $3.00 lb then start to fall off. This should be close to the end of April when prices decline. The graph is calling for a rapid decline into summer. We will be getting into the biggest beef supplies of the year in summer.
BEEF TOP BUTT SEL 13#-UP ($0.06) ($0.15) 10/4/10 Select top butts are projected to begin to trade lower through summer.
BEEF TNDR DEFATTED PSMO CH 5#-UP $0.05 $0.11 5/31/10 Choice tenders have gained significantly this spring, and there looks to be a little more room to go up. The top is expected to coincide with Memorial Day, and prices are projected to decline steeply after that.
SL PSMO TENDER 5UP 5#-UP ($0.26) ($0.50) 6/21/10 The top on selected tenders looks like it was last week. This week's projection is to be about a dime less than last week on average. Within a month this item looks to lose about $.50lb on trade levels, so prices to customers will lag behind a week or so. Expect prices to level off in June/July.
BEEF TRI TIP SIRL CH 185C 17#AVG $0.05 $0.22 6/7/10 Tri Tips look to have significant upside heading into Memorial day. Work with customers to gauge demand. Buy in extra at current levels to be in front of the holiday demand. The typical seasonal peak price is around the $3 range. Cattle supplies increase this summer which will help priced decline some.
BEEF SIRL BALL TIP 2UP CH185B 17#AVG $0.07 $0.03 4/26/10 Ball tips look to have about 2 weeks left to go up then will fall off about a dime. Ball tips are one of the few items trading at below last year levels in the wholesale market. This is the seasonal high period for this item, prices should start declining in May.
BEEF SIRLOIN FLAP CH 185A 17.5# $0.09 $0.13 6/28/10 Flap meat still is projected to gain all through spring and summer until larger cattle supplies help reduce prices. Stay ahead on this item with extra product on hand through June.

ROUND SIZE TREND Next 2 weeks Next 4 weeks Expected Top Expected bottom COMMENTS
BEEF ROUND INS TOP CH 168 23#AVG $0.04 $0.02 5/24/10 Inside rounds are trading at record levels for this time of year. There is only a few pennies of upside, however prices are expected to hover around current levels until June. Watch inventory levels going into the middle of May, to not be long when the price turns.
BEEF ROUND GOOSENECK CH 26#-UP ($0.08) ($0.12) 6/21/10 Goosenecks are expected to fall about $.20lb to the summer time low at the end of June. Stay close on inventory as the price is declining from seasonal pressure.
BEEF ROUND BOTTOM FLAT CH 13#AVG ($0.12) ($0.17) 5/10/10 Outside rounds are looking for a low in the middle of May. The price is expected to decrease another .15 to .20 then turn around. Stay close on inventory for the next month.

THIN MEAT SIZE TREND Next 2 weeks Next 4 weeks Expected Top Expected bottom COMMENTS
BEEF BRISKET DCKL-OFF CH 120 10-12# ($0.03) ($0.03) 7/5/10 Briskets fell .10lb on average in wholesale trades last week. It looks like they have finally found the top. Forward sales have been at less than spot buy prices. We are entering BBQ season, demand should keep price declines small, however they could lose another dime by July on average. Work with customers to accurately gauge demand. This item has been in high demand this spring, and supplies are not projected to significantly increase until June/July time frame.
BEEF FLANK STEAK CH 6/13#AV $0.24 $0.39 6/14/10 There is still a lot of room on the upside of flank steak. they are trading at higher than last year levels. Buy in extra and inform customers of the trend toward higher prices until the middle of June. This item is in tight supply due to cattle harvest and demand. Late summer should see some price relief.
BEEF SKIRT INSIDE 15#AVG $0.04 $0.04 5/3/10 Inside skirts look to have a short term upswing, then turn downward through summer.
BEEF SKIRT OUTSDE PLD 35# $0.18 $0.20 8/16/10 There is only an upside projected to outside skirts through August. Prices may remain relatively stable through May, then they swing up through June and July. This is another item to stay ahead on and have extra inventory on hand.

GRIND SIZE TREND Next 2 weeks Next 4 weeks Expected Top Expected bottom COMMENTS
GROUND BEEF 81/19 4/10LB $0.05 $0.05 5/17/10 Supplies of grinding materials remain tight. Pastures across the country are in good condition, which reduces the cows brought to slaughter. Double digit decreases in imports coupled with carcass weights 26lbs below last year all influence supply.
GROUND CHUCK 4/10LB $0.04 $0.04 5/17/10 Ground chuck follows the same trend for many of the same reasons. Packers will be turning chuck primals into grind instead of boxing them as the price advantage is towards grinds now. Look for prices to decline some into June.