The times they are a’changing.

Yesterday I went out for breakfast. The manager was doubling as hostess. Said she only had 2 servers instead of their usual 6. I asked her what happened to her other, usual servers.

“They got real jobs.”

Which leads me to ask, “What makes a real job?” I’m going to guess a livable income with some REAL health insurance where paying your premiums doesn’t cost you half your take home. One where you can pay for childcare while you work and still come out with something in your bank balance. Restaurant jobs used be held by students living at home, housewives working for pocket cash or retirees supplementing their pension. They were never intended to be the job you supported a family with. But seriously, we all know that’s not been the case for a long, long time. Typically those students graduated, went on to white collar, entry level jobs in their fields or into the skilled labor sector or industry. Maybe factory work. Well, skilled labor was replaced with automation, factory jobs went overseas and white collar jobs are requiring extended educational degrees. That gave restaurants a glut of a labor supply to draw from. They could pay them as little as they could get away with. An industrial level of food supply ( think industrial chicken farming and dairy production, massive beef and pork production along with cheap transportation costs to move it all to needier markets) meant cheaper food costs so the profit margins grew rapidly. Everybody wanted to get into the restaurant business. Having your own restaurant was like having your own Gucci bag that you could show off. Everybody wanted to (and could) play. The family restaurants that had been in business for generations using grandmother’s recipes gave way to O’Charlie’s and Applebees. Whereas owning a restaurants USED to offer an identity in society, a way of life, a family fed people from their own hearts because they felt like that was their calling, now it’s just game players looking at the P and Ls and wondering how soon they can add the next location. No heart. No soul. Just a black, bottom line.

Then COVID!

We’re seeing construction, remodeling and craftsmanship coming into high demand now. Soon it’ll be followed by stateside manufacturing and possibly steel (or brick or lumber) work to help meet demands. Those are better paying jobs with steady incomes where workers don’t have to depend on the good graces of diners for tips.
I think the restaurant industry is the canary in the mine. Right now it’s looking pretty pallid. Gone is that excessive population of willing workers from which they could onetime draw. Now, for the first time in a long time, restaurants are going to have to seriously compete for labor with the rest of the job market. They’ll adapt or die, so how will they adapt? This will change everything. This is an honest to god paradigm shift.

(Apologies for the long tangent.)

[Robin Garr]

We went to brunch today and the minute we sat down the host came over and told us "We're on a 15-minute wait, is that ok?" Upon further questioning she explained that the kitchen was way overworked and was taking at least 15 minutes longer than usual to get orders out. There appeared to be sufficient waitstaff, and the food was good when it came, but I feel certain the kitchen is way short on line cooks and such.

We went to Silver Dollar on Friday and despite countless open tables, we were told it would be 2 hours until we were seated. We’ll happily try again but it was strange to look out at a half-empty restaurant and be told that.

We've run into this situation at several different restaurants we've gone to recently. Looks like even though things are opening up, servers and cooks are either not going back to work or going back to work in different trades after the "pandemic". Hopefully in the long run this will work itself out or the dining scene may be in for a major shakeup! It certainly looks like it's going to be an impetus for higher salaries for those working in the dining industry.

Maybe I should add that I did wait for my table, was seated, got great service and had an excellent meal. No problems with the skeletal staff that was doing their best with a difficult situation. I’ll add I watched I, don’t know how many groups (at least a dozen) walk back out after being told there was a wait. Some understood the situation, others complained and asked why a wait with so many empty tables?
So, thinking out loud here, if every 4 top represents $50-60 and I saw at least 12 walk out, that represents a loss of at least $600 in revenue every 90 minutes.
6 employees @$20 per hour for 90 minutes would have cost = $180.
(Shrugs) That over simplifies the math and the costs involved, but maybe, it’s simply time rethink acceptable profit margins.

So, thinking out loud here, if every 4 top represents $50-60 and I saw at least 12 walk out, that represents a loss of at least $600 in revenue every 90 minutes. 6 employees @$20 per hour for 90 minutes would have cost = $180.
(Shrugs) That over simplifies the math and the costs involved, but maybe, it’s simply time rethink acceptable profit margins.

The profit margin for restaurants in general are very low, <10% in most cases so using your numbers with a 10% profit margin the loss would have only been $60 and probably even less than that.

Ok, so it’s been a festive weekend and we’ve been out to eat TWICE! I have to share that we went to Mike Linnig’s at 5:15 or so and the ticket times were 2 hours. (A nice man made an announcement while we were in line.) Then, we went across town to Bootleg BBQ, a bit before 6:00 and their kitchen was so backed up that they weren’t accepting orders. Finally, we wound up at Mark’s with a 45 minute wait.

I am not complaining about any of the places named. I’m glad they’re busy! Simply pointing out that this will be a thing for a while.

My brother and I went to Burger Girl diner a couple weeks ago at around 12:30. When we arrived there were six or seven customers other than us. There was one person greeting, taking orders, cooking, serving and cashiering. By the time we left there were maybe 12 customers. She provided amazing service and cranked those orders out pretty quickly. Pre-pandemic Burger Girl had two servers and one or two cooks.

So, maybe, what will change will be more people will be cooking at home regularly (many have recently learned how ) so traffic at restaurants will be reduced necessitating a smaller staff size? This would sorta eliminate that “churning them in/out” feeling at some places.
Those that remain in the biz would do so because they honestly like the work. That would make for a happier/better/ more efficient employee. That would enhance the dining experience.
I dunno.
Maybe we will return to the days when eating out was an event and not the default move for eating.
How will that change the industry? The supply side?

[Robin Garr]

The profit margin for restaurants in general are very low, <10% in most cases so using your numbers with a 10% profit margin the loss would have only been $60 and probably even less than that.

That may need to change post-pandemic, Mark. That trope has been used for generations to justify paying restaurant workers below minimum wage and expect them to make it up on tips. It's said to be the only way to make the numbers work, but hang on: What about Europe, or Japan, or New Zealand and Australia, etc., where restaurant prices are fair, workers are paid well and gain respect as professionals, and owners somehow, magically, don't go out of business. A year off helped a lot of servers to recognize that there are alternatives to the way it's done now, and the system may finally need to be reinvented. How do the numbers work in Europe? I don't know, but it shouldn't be hard to find out.

I have to share that we went to Mike Linnig’s at 5:15

Great minds think alike!...We also tried to get into Mike Linnig's at 4:30 with a party of 8. I normally would not travel that far (from Buechel) for a meal but my niece was in town from Texas and she had Mike's on her bucket list. We found an open table in the back and were told it would be an hour to get a server and another 1.5 hours to get the food out of the kitchen!!! We left and also went to Mark's Feed Store and had a wonderful fish dinner with fantastic service and it was very quick and efficient. +1 for Mark's!

I agree with you Robin. If the profit margin was genuinely that dismal you wouldn’t see everybody, their mother, and every sports star starting their own restaurant. I doubt anyone goes to their accountant and says, “ What business can I get into that will give me the shoddiest return on my investment? Something where the employee turnover is max , where either I or my manger must put in at least 60 hours a week. Maybe one that’s notorious for drug abuse among workers. THAT’S what I want.”