Good read: restaurant bubble?

https://www.thrillist.com/eat/nation/am ... bble-burst

[Robin Garr]

I skimmed that, but then I thought, "Thrillist."

Even though it's an article by thrilllist it's actually better than many of them they publish. Some of the points brought up in the article are quite relevant and have been talked about here multiple times, the biggest of which is the shortage of qualified personnel for the restaurant industry.

This is yet another example of trying to apply some standard of measure across the industry of a country that stretches 3,000 miles with 300 million habitants. This is primarily a NYC and San Francisco-centric view with a few other references thrown in for good will.

Sure, there has been conversation and concern for a spreading thin of professional front and back house workers, but let's really dig deeper here. Cities with astronomical rents and property costs, high parking rates, high hotel rates, horrible traffic congestion that makes it difficult to even go out to eat in certain parts of town, and other such factors are heading for a bubble burst in just general lifestyle.

In the case of Louisville, I can still park a car just about anywhere for free, I can get across town for the most part in 20-25 minutes, my house payment--in a beautiful house, mind you--is WAY below what people pay for a moderate dwelling in some of these cities, and hotels for out-of-towners are still reasonable and close enough to drive to restaurants just about anywhere.

You can't live in DC, NYC, SF anymore for $40,000 a year. This is a salary for youth sharing apartments and counting their pennies. Everyone else has to eventually move further out to the suburbs. But here, people can still get by and live close enough in to get around . And when tourists hit these cities and their hotel sucks up most of their per diem they're not going to eat as readily in expensive restaurants.

I just read this morning a piece on the culinary conference coming here in March. Several people have already chimed in earlier about how big this is. I do believe the commentary by the culinary rep about how people are excited to come here. I spoke to one of my dear friends in San Diego who told me he keeps hearing good things about Louisville.

Let's keep in mind the upside potential here. The Omni, Convention Center, Bourbon distilleries, umpteen more hotels, apartment/condo complexes in large numbers, etc. This money is coming here for a reason. We'll have some fallout, but the market dynamics are different here than in some of these other places. The upside dynamics have topped out in some of these other places. The table is set here and the party is in its early phases, in my view.

I read an article a few weeks ago about diners closing in NYC. Rents are hovering around 25k PER MONTH. I don't see how any business can handle that fixed cost.

I read an article a few weeks ago about diners closing in NYC. Rents are hovering around 25k PER MONTH. I don't see how any business can handle that fixed cost.

We were talking to one of the Texas road managers recently about the one that's moving from Dutchman's Lane to Shelbyville Road across from the mall. The rent is going to go down significantly, the location on Dutchman's is paying over $30,000 a month rent! Of course I also have to rent part of the parking lot considering that's owned by somebody else too. No wonder they are moving, I'm surprised they stay there that long with that kind of rent.

[Robin Garr]

Given the flaws in the Thrillist piece with its focus on NYC and the West Coast, I have a bad feeling that we may be seeing something similar-only-different here. It's too soon to name names, but be prepared for some unexpected losses in coming months ... perhaps in the realm of a generational change as once-young chefs start thinking about retiring.

Given the flaws in the Thrillist piece with its focus on NYC and the West Coast, I have a bad feeling that we may be seeing something similar-only-different here. It's too soon to name names, but be prepared for some unexpected losses in coming months ... perhaps in the realm of a generational change as once-young chefs start thinking about retiring.

Oh dear...any heads up would be great! It looks like I finally moved back to Louisville just in time to catch some places I've been wanting to go to

I read an article a few weeks ago about diners closing in NYC. Rents are hovering around 25k PER MONTH. I don't see how any business can handle that fixed cost.

We were talking to one of the Texas road managers recently about the one that's moving from Dutchman's Lane to Shelbyville Road across from the mall. The rent is going to go down significantly, the location on Dutchman's is paying over $30,000 a month rent! Of course I also have to rent part of the parking lot considering that's owned by somebody else too. No wonder they are moving, I'm surprised they stay there that long with that kind of rent.

Many times those giant rent numbers include a bunch of landlord contributions for the build outs. Other times crazy lease agreements are between companies owned by the same person or people.

Given the flaws in the Thrillist piece with its focus on NYC and the West Coast, I have a bad feeling that we may be seeing something similar-only-different here. It's too soon to name names, but be prepared for some unexpected losses in coming months ... perhaps in the realm of a generational change as once-young chefs start thinking about retiring.

Not a culinary staple but Monkey Wrench is closing April 1st.