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Marsha L.

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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Marsha L. » Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:56 pm

DanB wrote:Marsha, I have to wonder what problem you have with his statements. It is, without doubt, common sense to assume franchisees at every fast food chain in America will be cutting hours in response to Obamacare, including PJs franchisees. That's a straight forward answer to what his best guess was on the near term outcome. I'm not sure what else you expect him to say. He called it a lose-lose situation i.e. PJ franchisees lose and their employees lose too. For the life of me I can't figure out what you find wrong with that.


I find a lot wrong with it. The amount of money he's talking about is around 1% of his costs. Cheese prices alone fluctuated about 14% last year, but I don't remember him telling his investors he was going to stop putting cheese on Papa John's pizzas. Had he given away 1 million free pies this NFL season rather than the 2 million he's slated to give away, the whole thing would be a moot point. What do I expect him to say? Well, he started off on the right foot by saying his corporation was better positioned than most to absorb the added cost of the ACA. So - absorb it, treat your employees like humans instead of chattel. You've done extremely well for yourself, and that's great, is what I said. And then I said, hey - wouldn't you like to donate to the sort of organization your gang always says is the way to fund charity? Through a non-government, community-based group?

DanB wrote:Otherwise you're doing a bang-up job of ruining any chances your charity had to get donations from Schnatter, PJs corporation, or any of it's well-paid management types who call Louisville home. If your intention really was to get more money for your charity, you could have done a bit of networking, got the name of his executive secretary, sent a very nice lettter, perhaps even alluding discreetly to his recent PR problems, and then asking very nicely for a donation (hint, hint this could help you John). Instead, you're insulting him publicly, thereby screwing your charity out of any chance to get donations from his camp. Seems to me you're a lot less interested in getting donations from him than you are in simply "calling him out" in public.


See, again, I don't feel like I insulted him. As I was writing, I was making a great effort not to do so. There've been plenty of people doing that. I didn't call for a boycott. I didn't disparage his product. But what he did and said was newsworthy. I hoped that writing about it, since I'm a food writer in the town where he's from, would draw a lot of eyes and page clicks. I hoped to draw attention to APRON, and our upcoming fundraiser.

Believe me, I know how to network. Had I wanted to contact him directly and ask for a donation, I certainly would have had no trouble landing a letter directly on his desk. But why does anyone write an open letter? So other people can read it and examine their own position on the issue. I actually still have some hope he might write a check to APRON, or at least Dine Out at one of the participating restaurants on December 4th. But if he doesn't, at least a few dozen others might, as a result of reading my column.

DanB wrote:I just dislike intellectually dishonest bullshit and/or sloppy work.


"There you go again," to quote another famous conservative. My column was not intellectually dishonest bullshit. I was not sloppy. I didn't refer to the CNN piece, I referred to this article in Forbes Magazine, in which someone actually did the math:

Last year, Papa John’s International captured $1.218 billion in revenue. Total operating expenses were $1.131 billion. So if Schnatter’s math is accurate (Obamacare will cost his company $5-8 million more annually), then new regulation translates into a .4% to .7% (yes, fractions of a percent) expense increase. It’s difficult to set that ratio against the proposed pie increase, given size and topping differentials, but many of their large specialty pizzas run for $16. Remarkably, a 10-14 cent increase on a $16 pizza falls in a comparable range: .6% to.9%. But the cost transference becomes less equitable if you’re looking at medium pizzas, which run closer to $12, meaning a .8% to 1.15% price increase.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Papa John’s sells exactly half medium/half large specialty pizzas. Averaging the ranges for both sizes, then averaging that product yields a .86% price increase — well outside the range of what Schnatter says Obamacare will cost him.

So how much would prices go up, under these 50/50 conditions, if they were to fairly reflect the increased cost of doing business onset by Obamacare? Roughly 3.4 to 4.6 cents a pie.

In September, the company announced that it would be giving away 2 million free pizzas. That was, of course, a promotion designed to increase brand awareness and to invite consumers to try the brand — with the ultimate goal of selling more pizzas. Those giveaways can’t really be cataloged alongside sales that would have been made otherwise. But just in case you’re curious, that would be the equivalent of $24 million to $32 million in pizza revenue.
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Carla G

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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Carla G » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:46 pm

Ted Stevens wrote:
Carla G wrote:Good question Stephen. Another good question is what would be the impact on public health with socialized medicine? I find it inexcusable that while we lead in the development of new medicines, have more neo- natal specialists and more neonatal / pediatric doctors and more bed space availability than anywhere else in the world but we rank more than 51st in child mortality.means That more than 50other countries ( like Cuba, the Czech Republic, South Korea and Singapore) do a better job keeping infants alive than the US does. What's up with that? How can that be? What can possibly be our excuse?


Was that based on total number of deaths or a population percentage ?


According to the web site it was based on the number of deaths per 1000 live births. So, for every 1000 babies are born in the US, 6 will die. For countries such as Hong Kong, Sweden, Singapore, Bermuda, Japan and Monaco that number drops down to less than 3. I suppose there can be made some sort of argument regarding a large population vs. a very small one but then again, the US leads in pharmasudical development, number of physicians and available bed space. Given that shouldn't we be at least in the top 5 or 10 and not 51st?
(BTW those numbers were for 2012)
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Stephen D

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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Stephen D » Sat Dec 01, 2012 12:50 am

We are talking about a very small number here- .6% vs .18 for the top.

The report also states that it is considered a measure of a population's health. Nowhere does it state that it was an indication of healthcare availability.

Keep in mind that our reporting is going to be much more accurate than those in the developing world. The 2012 numbers are estimates.

Also keep in mind that we also have a huge immigrant population, chock-full of folks that are trying to avoid deportation until the last, desparate moment.

I don't know- I still prefer a measured approach, before we go reengineering the whole thing.
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Carla G » Sat Dec 01, 2012 1:21 am

Sorry Stephen but again, given our vast resources and advantages coming in 51st in infant mortality ratings is shameful. There is no good excuse for that. And we 're not the only country that has immigrants so...no excuse there. As far as re engineering the whole healthcare system, Switzerlad did just that and quite succesfully. Their health care system was identical to ours and many said it was impractical to do so and yet they did it. (And they beat the US on the IMR list by almost 30 spots.)
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Stephen D » Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:52 am

I love our talks, dear Carla.

You have last word.

:D
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Carla G » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:31 am

As do I Stephen. And at my age, the only reason I continue to push issues such as this is for the health and well being of children. Just as I know you treasure being a new dad. :D
"She did not so much cook as assassinate food." - Storm Jameson
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by DanB » Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:41 am

@Marsha

Firstly when I said intellecvtually dishonest bullshit I wasn't referring to your original post. There is currently a few million metric tons of intellectually dishonest bullshit being written about this topic on a near daily basis by many people. This is, as I´'ve said before, because John entered the political arena on Team Red which puts a gigantic target on his back for Team Blue. He should have known better.

The Forbes piece is OK, insofar as it knows for certain the relevance of alll the numbers, which it probably doesn't.. In any case it was a very honest stab at the question compared to the CNN piece which was nothing more than crowd-pleezer garbage. 5-8million is the number but we don't know (at least I don't think we do) if it's pretax or net income so that's a 35-40% potential differential. Also we don't know if 5 - 8 million is additional cost solely to be borne by corporate and which does not include additional costs to be borne by franchisees. Those two details alone could easily explain the diffference's between Forbes guess and Schnatter's. The only way to know for sure is for someone to ask PJs for the details. Generally most CEOs may slightly overstate costs so they can deliver slightly better figures on quarterly earniings. Good CEOs OTOH, know better than to overplay this hand.
Generally I think it's got to the point of hair-splitting which is only of interest to the political crowd, but barely relevant to equity analysts, esp when you consider that every other company in that sector will have nearly identical cost increases. For Fidelity or Blackrock the only issue is that the sector is perhaps relatively less attractive.

I'll just go ahead and stand by my comment that you've probably spiked your chances of getting a donation. Most CEOs I know wouldn't take kindly at all to someone saying they are "spouting off".
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Marsha L.

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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Marsha L. » Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:05 am

Ahh, the old "Show me the numbers! Wait, not those numbers!" ploy:

DanB wrote:5-8million is the number but we don't know (at least I don't think we do) if it's pretax or net income so that's a 35-40% potential differential. Also we don't know if 5 - 8 million is additional cost solely to be borne by corporate and which does not include additional costs to be borne by franchisees. Those two details alone could easily explain the diffference's between Forbes guess and Schnatter's.


Then why doesn't someone ask Mr. Schnatter? The $5-8 million number was his. He's probably done talking about that figure for awhile, though.
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by DanB » Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:46 am

Marsha L. wrote:Then why doesn't someone ask Mr. Schnatter? The $5-8 million number was his. He's probably done talking about that figure for awhile, though.


Probably because the only people who care at this point are those on Team Blue who have decided to use him as the current punching bag (the Chick fil-A guys are probably giving each other high fives). PJs market cap is only $1.2Bn so Wall St won't bother itself about putting a few million in costs under the microscope. They've undoubtedly already factored in assumptions for Obamacare costs for the industry as a whole so why bother with trifling details?
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Richard S. » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:34 am

I noticed in Mr. Schnatter's op-ed in the Courier yesterday that he touted how he had given his employees raises 9 of the past 10 years. He did neglect, though, to mention that the company shifted drivers to a tip credit system a few years ago, effectively cutting their pay.
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by DanB » Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:40 am

Ermahgerd! Cherscerk CEO sers Obermercare expernsive:

http://www.businessinsider.com/cheeseca ... re-2012-12

But will there be backlash?
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Mike Hardin » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:49 am

DanB wrote:Ermahgerd! Cherscerk CEO sers Obermercare expernsive:

http://www.businessinsider.com/cheeseca ... re-2012-12

But will there be backlash?


For saying it might be more expensive but he's not sure? For saying the price might go up but not saying that the employees will have their hours cut? I doubt it. Nice false equivalency there, Dan.
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by DanB » Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:34 pm

There's no false equivalency at all Mike. Both CEOs were asked directly about the policy's effect on their companies and the industry. Both CEOs indicated that their companies are well situated to absorb the policy's costs, Cheescake because they're insuring 25 hour+ employees already and PJs because they also already insure a great many employess and consider the additional costs relatively small (long forgotten in this hullabaloo was the original earnings call where Mr. Schnatter suggested Obamacare costs per order were a mere 1/10th of the average delivery charge and hence no big deal for PJs).

Both CEOs also commented on what others would do. Mr. Schnatter suggested his franchisees would cut hours. Mr. Overton, while less specific, suggested that those in the industry who don't offer coverage would "be in for a very expensive situation" and would have to raise prices or cheapen their product.

Anyone with a brain knows the entire discussion is politically driven. It remains to be seen if Mr. Overton will be pilloried by Team Blue for offering what could easily be called a more dire prognosis for the policy's ramifications. However, I suspect he didn't hold a fund raiser for Mitt Romney and hence, he'll probably be let off the hook.
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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by JimDantin » Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:05 pm

Looks like the customers are speaking out and the numbers show some significant negative impact --
Anti-Obamacare rhetoric and restaurant Buzz
http://www.brandindex.com/article/anti-obamacare-rhetoric-buzz

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Re: Discussion of Marsha's Industry Standard: Dear (Papa) Jo

by Robin Garr » Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:47 pm

JimDantin wrote:Looks like the customers are speaking out and the numbers show some significant negative impact --

You reap what you sow ...
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